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2020.01.30

【Aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan】No.211: Population decline is accelerating

In this column series, Yukihiro Matsuyama, Research Director at CIGS introduces the latest information about aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan with data of international comparison.

The importance of adopting countermeasures against declining birthrates has been highlighted since the government announced the population projections report in April, 2017, which shows that Japan's population would decrease from 127 million in 2015 to 88 million in 2065. However, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of births in 2019 was 864,000, which is lower than the projected number of births of 921,000. As shown in figure 1, the actual number of births in 2017 and 2018 were also lower than the projected number of births. On the other hand, the actual number of deaths has remained almost equal to the projected number of deaths (figure 2). This suggests that population decline is progressing at a rate faster than predicted in 2017.



Figure 1 Number of births

211f01.png

(Source) Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare



Figure 2 Number of deaths

211f02.png

(Source) (Source) Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare

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