Research Director Keiichiro KOBAYASHI



Professor, Department of economics, Keio University
Senior Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry, IAA

[Research Themes]


  • Macroeconomics
    Endogenous Growth Theory
    General Equilibrium
    Business Cycles
    Bad Debt Problem
    Debt Control Policy

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  • 1998 Ph.D., Economics, the University of Chicago
  • 1991 M.S., Mathematical Engineering, The University of Tokyo


  • 2009.04 - Research Director, The Canon Institute for Global Studies
  • 2007.06 - Senior Fellow, RIETI
  • 2007.04 - 2009.03 Part-time Lecturer, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University
  • 2005.04 Visiting Professor, Chuo University
  • 2003.01 - 2007.06 Guest Editorial Writer, The Asahi Shimbun
  • 2001.04 - Fellow, RIETI
  • 1991.04 Joined the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan)


  • The Price of Escape (in Japanese), Nikkei Publishing, 2003.
  • Trap of the Japanese Economy, (in Japanese, co-authored with Sota Kato), Nikkei Publishing, 2001.
  • Economics of Balance-Sheet Restructuring, (in Japanese, co-edited with Mitsuhiro Fukao, Tatsuya Terazawa), Toyokeizai, 2001.
  • Debate on the Japanese Macroeconomic Policy, (in Japanese, co-edited with Hiroshi Yoshikawa,, Toyokeizai, 2000.


  • "Payment Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown," Macroeconomic Dynamics (2007) 11(2): 231-248.
  • "Forbearance Impedes Confidence Recovery," Journal of Macroeconomics (2007) 29(1): 178-188.
  • "Business Cycle Accounting for the Japanese Economy," Japan and the World Economy (2006) 18(4): 418-440.
  • "Fiscal Consequences of Inflationary Policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (2005) 19:386-93.
  • "Debt Disorganization in Japan," Japan and the World Economy (2005) 17:151-69.
  • "A Theory of Debt Disorganizaiton," Journal of Restructuring Finance (2004) 1(1): 1-11.
  • "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," (with Toshitaka Sekine, Yumi Saita) Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies (2003) 21(2):69-92.

  • "Bank Distress and Productivity of Borrowing Firms: Evidence from Japan," (with Fumio Akiyoshi), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 07-E-014, 2007.
  • "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," (with Tomoyuki Nakajima and Masaru Inaba), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 07-E-013, 2007.
  • "'Irrational exuberance' in the Pigou Cycle under Collateral Constraints," (with Masaru Inaba), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-E-015, 2006.3.
  • "Borrowing Constraints and Protracted Recessions," (with Masaru Inaba) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-E-011, 2006.3.
  • "Transaction Services and Asset-price Bubbles (Revised)," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-E-010, 2006.3.
  • "Business Cycle Accounting for the Japanese Economy," (with Masaru Inaba), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 05-E-023, 2005.9.
  • "Forbearance Impedes Confidence Recovery (Revised)," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 5-E-002, 2005.2.
  • "Payment Uncertainty, the Division of Labor, and Productivity Declines in Great Depressions," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-037, 2004.12.
  • "Is Financial Friction Irrelevant to the Great Depression? - Simple modification of the Carlstrom-Fuerst model-," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-030, 2004.9.
  • "Payment Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-029, 2004.9.
  • "A key currency and a local currency? A simple theoretical model and its welfare implications," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-025, 2004.8.
  • "Monetary Cycles," (with Masaru Inaba), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-020, 2004.4.
  • "Deflation Caused by Bank Insolvency," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-E-022, 2003.10.
  • "Debt Deflation and Bank Recapitalization," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-E-007, 2003.2.
  • "Fiscal Consequences of Inflationary Policies," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-E-010, 2002.9.
  • "Forbearance Impedes Confidence Recovery," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-E-005, 2002.6.
  • "Japan's Lost Decade and the Complexity Externality (Revised)," (with Masaru Inaba), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-E-004, 2002.3.

  • KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, SAITA Yumi, SEKINE Toshitaka, "Forbearance Lending: A Case for Japanese Firms," Research and Statistics Department Discussion Paper Series 02-02, Bank of Japan, 2002.
  • "Deposit Money Creation in Search Equilibrium," Research and Statistics Department Discussion Paper Series 02-04, Bank of Japan, 2002.

  • "Disorganization due to Forbearance of Debt Restructuring," Working Paper.
  • "Debt Overhang as a Delayed Penalty," MITI/RI Discussion Paper.
  • "The Division of Labor, the Extent of the Market, and Economic Growth," (Ph.D. Dissertation), University of Chicago



  • 2002 Osaragi Jiro Critics Award (for Trap of the Japanese Economy)
  • 2001 Nikkei Economics Book Award (for Trap of the Japanese Economy)