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2018.05.10

【Aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan】No.101: Population Projection by Region

In this column series, Yukihiro Matsuyama, Research Director at CIGS introduces the latest information about aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan with data of international comparison.

In March 2018, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research released a report on the population projection by region. According to the population projection (April 2017) announced by the institute, Japan's population is estimated to decline by 16.3% from 127,095,000 in 2015 to 106,421,000 in 2045. The new estimate is a breakdown of the previous estimate made by prefecture and municipality.

There are 47 prefectures and 1,798 municipalities in Japan. As shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, only the Tokyo metropolitan area will exceed the population of 2015 as of 2045. The population of Akita prefecture will decline by 41.2% during the same period. Moreover, in more than 70% of municipalities, the population in 2045 will decline by more than 20% compared to the 2015 population.

The percentage of the population aged 65 or over in relation to the total population will increase from 26.6% in 2015 to 36.8% in 2045. As for the percentage of the elderly, Akita is the largest (50.1%) and Tokyo is the smallest (30.7%) among 47 prefectures. The number of municipalities where the elderly population represents more than 50% of the total population will increase from 15 in 2015 to 465 in 2045.


Table 1: Population by Prefecture
101-table1.png

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research


Figure 1: Population index in 2045 (Population in 2015=100) by prefecture
101-fig1.png



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